The Climate Forecast Briefing will present the current and predicted ENSO status, the Climate Predictions for the upcoming months, and a discussion on the verifications of previous forecasts.

Visit Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory or stream online.

Speakers: Anthony Barnston, IRI Chief Forecaster; Wilco Terink, FutureWater, The Netherlands

In addition, Wilco Terink from FutureWater, will present “Water Marginal Cost Curves to support adaptation measure prioritization: case studies from Africa and Asia”.

Summary: In many regions worldwide water shortages are expected as a result of changes in climate, population, economic development and irrigation. These predicted water shortages are not the same in every region around the world, and also the contribution of climate change in these predicted water shortages varies around the world. As a result, societies should prioritize which adaptation measure is most effective to decrease their water shortages. During this presentation two different studies will be presented that both focus on the impact of climate change on water shortages and the available adaption strategies that can help to reduce these shortages. The first study (World Bank supported) focuses on the Middle-East and North-Africa (MENA) region. This study shows that water shortages in the MENA region will increase from 42 km3 in 2010 to 199 km3 per year for the MENA region by 2050. Even though all climate models project a significant aridification of the MENA region, our results show that the projected water shortage is mainly due to socio-economic developments and that climate change only contributes 18%. Adaptation by various measures to overcome all water shortages will cost an estimated 147 billion US$ annually by 2050. The climate component in this figure is 48 billion US$ (3% of current GDP of the 21 MENA countries). The second study (Asian Development Bank supported) focuses on a very different orographic region: two Areal Sea basins in Central Asia. The hydrological regimes of the two rivers in these basins are complex and vulnerable to climate change. Water diversions to agricultural, industrial and domestic users have reduced flows in downstream regions, resulting in severe ecological damages. The administrative-institutional system is fragmented, with six independent countries sharing control, often with contradicting objectives. This study was performed in order to support regional policies in their investment plans and commitments to international agreements and conventions. State-of-the-art and scientifically established approaches were applied to assess the current and future water demand, supply and shortage in the Central Asian region and to explore options, and associated costs, to overcome water shortage. Applying the most cost-effective adaptation measures will close the water gap and cost US$ 1,730 million per year in 2050 (net present value). Closing the water gap caused by climate change only will cost US$ 550 million per year in 2050, which is a more significant part than for the MENA study.

This seminar will be broadcast via GotoMeeting; for more information please contact seminar@iri.columbia.edu

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